what is the crisis in the Tamil National Alliance?

(February 25, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  Many ex-MPs of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) of Sri Lanka have not been given the opportunity to run for the elections under the ticket of the TNA. A number of those who lost nominations have become the pets of the government. But, a considerable number of MPs like Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, S. Kajendran, Pathmini Sithamparanathan, M.K. Sivajilingam and N. Srikantha etc. are denied nominations due to political reasons.

The division of the TNA is clearly on political lines. After the military debacle of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE), a wide gap is being created in the Tamil polity. This is symbolically depicted as the gap between the Diaspora Tamils and the Tamils living in Sri Lanka.

Robert Templer of the International Crisis Group says, "Most in the country are exhausted by decades of war and are more concerned with rebuilding their lives under difficult circumstances than in continuing the fight for an independent state. Without the LTTE to enforce a common political line, Tamil leaders in Sri Lanka are proposing substantial reforms within a united Sri Lanka."

But the gap exists within the people that live in the island too. You might not see it and you might misunderstand it since most of the Tamil nationalists that live in the country remain silent maintaining a low profile in fear of punishment.

In fact, the present TNA leaders appear to accept something beyond the Provincial Councils and to go for co-habitation with the Colombo government under favorable conditions. The split of the TNA is actually between those who have dropped the call for self-determination of the Tamils and those who still fight for it.

Self-determination literally means cessation although it does not essentially mean a separate state. That is for what thousands of Tamils gave their lives and there can be elements in the polity that do not wish to give up the will to fight for what their brethren gave their lives. They have the right to carry on their struggle and those who wish to give up the ideals for pragmatic solutions also have the right to do so.

But, the ball still remains in the court of the Sinhalese. Do they like to engage in a dialogue and a political process with at least the Tamils that looks moderate to them while they are looked down on as submissive leaders amidst some elements of their own polity?

TNA constituents like Federal Party, EPRLF and TELO that have now grabbed the grip loosened by the LTTE are in a liberal stand and they can be expected to come to a settlement with Colombo government under a liberal capitalist framework. This can happen easily if a coalition under United National Front comes to power. Ruling United National Freedom Alliance is far backward and antagonistic to reforms.

International Crisis Group on Sri Lankan issue

(February 24, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora groups should move away, once and for all, from the failed agenda of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and instead put their energies into the quest for a sustainable and just peace in a united Sri Lank, says International Crisis Group, a think tank studying the conflicts in the world.

Following is the full text of their report:

The Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora after the LTTE,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines political dynamics within the Tamil diaspora since May 2009, as Tamils abroad adapt to the LTTE’s defeat. It also looks at the potential for new forms of militancy within the diaspora, especially among the younger generations, radicalised by the deaths of thousands of Tamil civilians in the final months of the war. While there is little chance of the Tamil Tigers regrouping in the diaspora, most Tamils abroad remain profoundly committed to a separate state of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka.

“New diaspora initiatives attempt to carry forward the struggle for an independent state in more transparent and democratic ways, but they must repudiate the LTTE’s violent methods”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “And they must also recognise that the LTTE’s separatist agenda is out of step with the wishes and needs of Tamils in Sri Lanka”.

The gap between the diaspora and Tamils in Sri Lanka has widened. Most in the country are exhausted by decades of war and are more concerned with rebuilding their lives under difficult circumstances than in continuing the fight for an independent state. Without the LTTE to enforce a common political line, Tamil leaders in Sri Lanka are proposing substantial reforms within a united Sri Lanka. While Tamils have the democratic right to espouse separatism non-violently, Tamil Eelam has virtually no domestic or international backing. With the Sri Lankan government assuming Tamils abroad remain committed to violent means, the diaspora’s continued calls for a separate state feed the fears of the Rajapaksa administration and provid e excuses for maintaining destructive anti-terrorism and emergency laws.

The Sri Lankan government must address the legitimate grievances at the root of the conflict: the political marginalisation and physical insecurity of most Tamils in Sri Lanka. The international community needs to press Colombo much more strongly for political and constitutional reforms. Donors should insist that money given to redevelop the north and east is tied closely to the demilitarisation and democratisation of the region. This should include giving Tamils and Muslims a meaningful role in determining the future of the areas where they have long been the majority. Donor governments and the United Nations must also insist on an independent investigation into the thousands of Tamil civilians killed in the final months of 20fighting in 2009.

“Tamils in Sri Lanka currently have little appetite for a return to armed struggle”, says Robert Templer. “But should the Sri Lankan state continue to fail to respond to their collective aspirations, some may eventually seek a solution through violence and could find willing partners in the diaspora”.

The reality of rise of per capita in come of Sri Lanka

(February 23, Colombo - Lanka Polity)   Sri Lanka government has proudly announced that the per capita income has risen from $ 2200 to $2300 from 2008 to 2009.

Accordingly, if the national income is distributed equally, each Sri Lankan irrespective of age must have a share of Rs. 240,000 annual income. That simply means Rs. 20,000 monthly income and a family that has four members must earn Rs. 100,000 per month.

But the data released by the state relates a different story.

According to the Ministry of Social Security and Social Welfare, there are 350,000 recipients of concessions provided to extremely poor people of the country. This allowance is yet to be raised to Rs. 1000 a month. These people are subjected to live with 1/3 of a dollar per day.

Sri Lanka government provides 'Samurdhi' poverty concessions to low income groups. The Deputy Minister of State Revenue and Finance Ranjith Siyambalapitiya said in the parliament on May 05, 2009 that the number of Samurdhi recipients were 1,672,159 in 2008. He further stated that by 2007, there were 452,000 families that earned less than Rs. 6283/= per month. This is well over 5% of the population of Sri Lanka. This is the social strata that is in extreme poverty. What about the lower middle class? They too complain about a miserable life due to lack of income.

Sri Lanka government can boast about the increase of per capita income. But if the income does not distribute fairly and if the disparity widens, that means a bunch of affluents in social elite have robbed the national wealth pushing the masses further in poverty.

Tourism begin to bloom in Sri Lanka

Ancient Jaffna Fort

(February 22, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  The January performance of Sri Lankan hotels has been excellent, with arrivals reaching 50,750, which is a 32 percent increase on last January. The main contribution to this increase has been the British market (24.6 percent increase), Germany (54 percent) and India (73.5 percent). January and February are two of the busiest months in the tourism calendar, which is the peak of the high season. Better performance is expected in February.

Meanwhile, the state-run English weekly Sunday Observer quoted Tourism Minister Achala Jagoda as saying nearly 550,000 local and foreign tourists had toured Jaffna via A-9 road during last week.

The number quoted has come as a surprise to observers particularly since the Northern Province is still virtually out of bounds for foreigners and there is very little tourism infrastructure on the ground in the war-ravaged province.

Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa said recntly in an interview with The Hindu "I have set new targets for tourism. I called the Tourism Board and said I was not satisfied with the present [rate of development]. I want to call the private sector. They're going to the Maldives and various other countries to invest their money. I am going to tell them to invest here. I want to get Indian companies, the Tatas and others, to invest in Sri Lanka."

Ranil to face Fonseka in Colombo polls

(February 22, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  Sri Lanka's major opposition United National Party (UNP) that has already admitted the defeat at the upcoming general election scheduled on April 8 is facing another trouble as the defeated opposition presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka is likely to contest in an alliance with the Marxist People's Liberation Front (JVP). 

Fonseka is slated to contest under National Democratic Alliance's trophy symbol in Colombo district where UNP leader Ranil Wickramasinghe expects to obtain a massive number of preferential votes. 

UNP abandoned Fonseka following the election and it is understood that there was a government-UNP understanding behind the arrest of the ex-General. JVP took the brunt of agitations for his release and opened up a new path for a fighting opposition under his leadership. 

Sri Lanka definitely needs a new leadership to fight the rising constitutional and democratically elected dictatorship. The opposition led by Ranil Wickramasinghe is too submissive and lethargic for the task. Perhaps, the polity will try for new options. 

Are Sri Lankan Marixsts eying for the opposition leadership?

(February 20, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  The opposition coalition in Sri Lanka has shattered. The parties that backed the opposition presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka are now divided. Major opposition United National Party (UNP) is no more actively supporting the campaigns for his release.

Only the Marxist People's Liberation Front (JVP) has not abandoned him. JVP has decided to contest the general election under the 'trophy' symbol offering the leadership to Sarath Fonseka.

At a press conference held yesterday, National Organizer of Jathika Hela Urumaya Nishantha Sri Warnasinghe said that arrest of Gen (Rtd) Sarath Fonseka might prove to be detrimental to the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance's interests, particularly in view of the forthcoming general election.

Based on the same argument, one can say that the JVP is in an advantaged position. It can vie for sympathy votes, gratefulness votes and hatred votes etc. generated for Sarath Fonseka.

This will be detrimental not only to the ruling party but also the major opposition UNP as well. UNP is insisting the elephant symbol in a coalition to fight Rajapaksas at the upcoming general election. This is definitely a move not to ally with JVP. The Marxists cannot accept the elephant symbol due to understandable reasons.

JVP also actually wants to sun allying with the UNP although there is pressure from party grassroots to unite to fight Rajapaksa menace. JVP is a fighting force unlike the lethargic submissive UNP that has already admitted defeat. If JVP can create a wave of protest based on the arrest and court martial of Fonseka, the Fonseka-led coalition will be able to become the major opposition of the country.

The Sri Lankan polity that backs a regime change are in need of a pushy leadership to fight Rajapaksas. The general election scheduled for April 08 will decide if Fonseka and the JVP will be able to cater the need.

China's Sri Lanka port raises concern

(February 18, Colombo - Lanka Polity)  We feel the following UPI article is significant since it reveals the Indian pessimism regarding China's involvements in the affairs of the Indian Ocean. It also discusses about the Hambanthota port and its implications on international affairs.

China's construction of a port in Sri Lanka and a Chinese admiral's suggestion Beijing build a naval base in the Gulf of Aden has raised fears in the Middle East that a confrontation between China and India is looming along vital energy export routes.

Both the Asian titans, whose economies continue to expand despite the global financial meltdown, are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil and will become more so as supplies dwindle.

The Indians are building their naval forces across these vital shipping lanes through which some 85 percent of China's oil supplies pass along with raw materials from Africa.

Inevitably, these will increasingly encroach on Middle Eastern and African waters as Beijing seeks to protect the economic arteries on which it is becoming increasingly dependent all the way from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea.

This is causing grave concern in India, which is vying for the same energy and mineral resources as China.

This raises the prospect, distant though it may be, of a confrontation between the two. The region is vital too for the Gulf states as an energy export and trading route as they increasingly look eastward.

There is also the possibility that one day China and the United States, which has long been the dominant naval force in the Indian Ocean, may also clash.

New Delhi views China's efforts to expand its regional clout through its "string of pearls" strategy -- ringing India with naval bases and electronic listening posts -- as an attempt to muscle into waters India has long considered its own.

Indeed, the Chinese are seeking to protect their maritime trade further east as well in the Strait of Malacca, a major shipping choke point between Malaysia and Indonesia that links the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

Beijing wants to ensure unhindered access to the narrow waterway for its energy shipments.

The construction of the $1 billion container port at Hambantota, until recently a fishing hamlet on Sri Lanka's southeastern coast, illustrates how the Chinese thrust into the Indian Ocean is becoming more pronounced.

The deep-water port will include a development zone and an oil refinery.

Over the last few years, the Chinese have built a similar port at Gwadar on Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast, which will eventually be the terminal for pipelines carrying Gulf crude and natural gas to western China.

Another is planned at Chittagong in Bangladesh, an oil refinery terminal in the northern Bay of Bengal east of India.

These could become bases for China's growing submarine fleet, a potential threat to the arterial shipping lanes running east from the Persian Gulf.

The Chinese are reported to have established a naval base in Myanmar and intelligence surveillance bases on islands across the Bay of Bengal.

Another is reportedly being built on Marao Island in the Maldives chain that runs south toward the British base of Diego Garcia, currently manned by U.S. forces.

Beijing says it has no interest in establishing major foreign bases so far from home. But as its economy mushrooms and its naval forces swell, it will inevitably require bases to project its growing power.

China is reported to be interested in establishing facilities in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand.

In December, Rear Adm. Yin Zhou, a senior officer at the Chinese navy's Equipment Research Center, proposed a naval base be established in the Gulf of Aden, which would take Chinese expansion even further west than it is now.

Ostensibly, Yin's idea was to support China's naval flotilla attached to the international anti-piracy task force deployed off Somalia.

There is no question that piracy is a growing problem, not only in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, but in the Strait of Malacca and elsewhere.

The International Maritime Bureau, which monitors global piracy, said there were 42 attacks on oil tankers around the world in 2009, a 40 percent increase over 2008. And most took place off Somalia and the Arabian Peninsula.

But given China's naval expansion, it would make sense for Beijing to seek a military foothold in the Gulf of Aden, adding another strategic dimension and threat of conflict to a region already riddled with risk.