7/20/2014

Logical base for Sinhalese's fear of Muslim domination

I found this blog post when searching for the Sinhala and Muslim demographic statistics.

I think this article logically presents the fears the Sinhala Buddhists have and the extremists use to spread communal hatred.

I think that the leftists and other progressive elements that struggle for ethnic harmony and peace must consider these facts in their search for a more pragmatic approach in progressive politics.

Is there a Muslim Issue in Sri Lanka? An Objective Analysis

(adapted from —discourssions blog)

There is a verbal and action packed tug of war in Sri Lanka these days between its people ideologically divided into two opposite groups on this particular question. It has already created a pandemonium, even among political parties, and it was reported Muslim Congress is considering resigning from the government coalition, for government’s inefficiency to address the issue.
However, one of the salient features of this debate is that no party or a person to the question was able to put forward facts to support their positions rather than placing their ideological positions on just opinions and claims. It has become a battle of words, not facts.
In this backdrop, I think it is prudent to submit an objective analysis, so that everybody can make use as a common base to understand the question (if there one) and to formulate solutions.  I think proper identification of the question is the first  essential stepping stone for a proper solution.
One of the allegations against the Muslim community of Sri Lanka is that they have a higher population growth rate that would be a threat to the other communities of the country. However, though this is a thing that is verifiable with ease,  no one has opted for that alternative rather than engaged in a blind quarrel.
So with the available demographic statistics of Sri Lanka, we will undertake the task.
Please go through the following link.
There the table-1 is Population of Sri Lanka by ethnic group 1871 to 2012 and the table-2 is Population of Sri Lanka by religion 1881 to 2012.
The last census of the country was held in 2012 and the previous one to it  was held in 1981. Statistics given in the tables for 1989 and 2001 are estimates and therefore do  not represent exact figures.
Following data is from the table-1

Sinhalese (no)
1981 Census
10,979,400
1,886,900
1,046,900
2012 Census
15,173,820
2,270,924
1,869,820
Above population changes were taken place during the 31 years between 2012 and 1981.
Now we will calculate the (average) population growth rates of the ethnic groups.
Sinhalese — [(15,173,820-10,979,400)/ 10,979,400/31] x100     = 1.2323%
SL Tamils — [(2,270,924-1,886,900)/1,886,900/31] x100             = 0.6565%
SL Moors — [(1,869,820-1,046,900)/1,046,900/31] x100             = 2.5357%
According to the above, population growth rate of Moor community is over two (2) times of Sinhalese and almost four (4) times of Tamils.
Therefore it is apparent that if these ethnic population growths continue, the Moor community of Sri Lanka passes the populations of SL Tamils one day and Sinhalese some time after that.
Population growths follow Exponential Progressions.
With the use of Mathematics, it can be shown that Moor population in Sri Lanka will surpass the Tamil community in ten and a half years (10.5 years) and Sinhalese community in 163.65 years. *****
Now look at the Table-2 of the above link.

1981 Census
10,288,300
2,297,800
1,121,700 (7.56%)
1,130,600 (7.62%)
2012 Census
14,222,844
2,554,606
1,967,227 (9.71%)
1,509,606 (7.45%)
At the glance of the table you will be able to see that Muslims have already surpassed Christians during the period under  consideration.
Now as we did for the communities in the above we will calculate the growth rates of religions.
Buddhist—[(14,222,844-10,288,300)/ 10,288,300/31] x100 = 1.2336%
Hindu— [(2,554,606-2,297,800)/ 2,297,800/31] x100           = 0.3605%
Muslim—[(1,967,227 -1,121,700)/ 1,121,700/31] x100         = 2.4153%
Now applying the Mathematical formula as before, we can conclude that Muslim religion will pass Hindus in 12. 89 years and Buddhists will be passed in 170.45 years.
Another salient feature that should be noted is that though the most of the Malay community in Sri Lanka are Muslims, their population is declining. Their population has declined from 47,000 to 40,189 during the period under consideration.
Now the concerned parties can use these objective data in their action for  planning a violence free peaceful country.
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Mathematics
For instance say, this year’s population of a particular community is “A” and the growth rate is d,
If present population is denoted by T0, population after one (1) year is denoted by T1, 2nd year by T2….. and so on, Then,
T0=A
T1=A+Ad=———————–          =A(1+d)
T2=A(1+d)+ A(1+d)x=A(1+d)(1+d)———–=A(1+d)to the power 2
T3=A(1+d)(1+d)+ A(1+d)(1+d)d————-=A(1+d)to the power 3
…………..
…………..
Similarly,
Tn=————————————–=A(1+d)to the power n
That is if one community overtakes the other community in “n” years, Tn for both communities must be equal.
Now suppose, present Moor, Tamil and Sinhalese populations as a, b and c respectively and their growth rates as x, y and z respectively.
Now when Moors overtake Tamil population,
a(1+x) to the power n = b(1+y) to the power n
Therefore, b/a = (1+x) to the power n/ (1+y) to the power n
That is b/a = {(1+x)/ (1+y)} to the power n
Therefore, log (b/a) = log [{(1+x)/ (1+y)} to the power n]
Therefore, log (b/a) = n log {(1+x)/ (1+y)}
Therefore, n = log (b/a)/ log {(1+x)/ (1+y)} —————-(X)
 

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